Santa Teresa reopened to Mexican cattle, 300,000 metric tons of duty-free lean beef trimmings opened for import, pork stocks ran 12% above a year ago, and bird flu returned to turkey flocks ahead of Thanksgiving.
Overview
September brought three things meat buyers have been waiting for: the busiest livestock crossing on the Mexican border reopened, 300,000 metric tons of duty-free lean beef trimmings opened for import, and the government avoided an October 1 shutdown, so USDA market reports keep flowing. The Choice cutout firmed into month-end, pork turned bearish on heavy freezer stocks, and bird flu returned to turkey flocks ahead of Thanksgiving. Here is what moved between September 4 and October 1.
September by the numbers
- Duty-free lean trim
- 300,000 MT
- from September 1 · 3 tranches
- Choice cutout
- $382.66
- per cwt · September 29
- Pork in cold storage
- +12%
- vs. a year earlier · Aug 31
- Ground beef, retail
- $6.92
- per lb · August · record
Source: White House; USDA AMS via IndexBox, Sep 29; USDA NASS; BLS
Beef: Cutout Firms Into October
After dipping to $372.15/cwt on September 17, the Choice cutout climbed to $382.66 on September 29. Select gained more, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $18.18 from $22.81 on September 11. (IndexBox / USDA AMS; IndexBox / USDA AMS)
Boxed beef firmed into October
USDA boxed beef cutout, $ per cwt
- Choice
- Select
Reporting dates are uneven.
View data
| Choice | Select | |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | $379.75 | $360.45 |
| Sep 8 | $377.57 | $355.39 |
| Sep 17 | $372.15 | $351.88 |
| Sep 24 | $376.12 | $352.10 |
| Sep 29 | $382.66 | $364.48 |
Source: USDA AMS via IndexBox, Sep 1; USDA AMS via IndexBox, Sep 8; USDA AMS via IndexBox, Sep 17; USDA AMS via IndexBox, Sep 24; USDA AMS via IndexBox, Sep 29
- Cattle: 5-area negotiated live steers averaged $218.65/cwt on September 30. That day October live cattle closed at $218.67 and October feeders at $336.42. (IndexBox / USDA AMS; Brownfield)
- Cattle on Feed (September 18): 11.16 million head on September 1 (+0.7%). August placements fell 9.2% to 1.62 million, and placements and marketings were both the lowest for any August in the series. (DTN; Beef Magazine)
- USDA outlook (September 11): cattle price forecasts were cut for the rest of 2026 and through 2027 on weaker packer demand, and 2027 beef production was lowered on lighter weights and fewer expected placements. (High Plains Journal)
Retail: Another Record
August price data, released September 11, put 100% ground beef at a record $6.923/lb, up from $6.318 a year earlier. The beef and veal index was up 13.9% year over year. (BLS; Food Institute)
Ground beef set another record in August
U.S. average retail price, $ per lb, monthly
- Ground beef (100% beef)
- Bacon, sliced
No October 2025 data: BLS did not publish average prices for that month (federal shutdown).
View data
| Ground beef (100% beef) | Bacon, sliced | |
|---|---|---|
| Jan ’25 | $5.55 | $7.04 |
| Feb | $5.63 | $6.80 |
| Mar | $5.79 | $6.98 |
| Apr | $5.80 | $7.01 |
| May | $5.98 | $6.99 |
| Jun | $6.12 | $7.10 |
| Jul | $6.25 | $7.12 |
| Aug | $6.32 | $7.21 |
| Sep | $6.32 | $7.29 |
| Oct | — | — |
| Nov | $6.54 | $6.93 |
| Dec | $6.69 | $6.76 |
| Jan ’26 | $6.75 | $6.98 |
| Feb | $6.74 | $6.90 |
| Mar | $6.70 | $6.80 |
| Apr | $6.90 | $6.83 |
| May | $6.75 | $6.71 |
| Jun | $6.83 | $6.56 |
| Jul | $6.89 | $6.58 |
| Aug | $6.92 | $6.61 |
Source: BLS APU0000703112; BLS APU0000704111
Santa Teresa Reopens
After Douglas, Arizona reopened on August 24, Agriculture Secretary Rollins announced on September 17 that Santa Teresa, New Mexico would follow; Mexican cattle imports resumed there on September 24 with extra inspection, treatment and traceability requirements. Santa Teresa is the busiest livestock port on the border, handling 43% of Mexican cattle imports over the past five years. (Kansas Livestock Association; NPR)
The risk hasn’t gone away: on September 18, New World screwworm was confirmed in a horse in Grant County, New Mexico. (Bloomberg)
300,000 MT of Duty-Free Lean Trim
Proclamation 11059, signed August 26, adds 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings to the 2026 in-quota quantity, duty-free for 90 days from September 1, released in three 100,000 MT tranches. The imports must be sold at “25 percent below the market price.” Brazil and Paraguay are eligible; Argentina, Uruguay, Australia and New Zealand are not, because they hold their own country allocations. (White House; Agri-Pulse)
Argentina’s own 80,000 MT 2026 quota runs in 20,000 MT quarterly tranches with no rollover; its third tranche closed September 30. (CBP)
Pork: Heavy Freezers, Contract Lows
- Hogs and Pigs (September 24): 74.3 million head, down 1.5%. The breeding herd of 5.875 million is the smallest for September since 2013, but litters averaged a record 11.96 pigs, the highest for any quarter. (USDA NASS; Pork Checkoff)
- Prices: the pork carcass cutout was $91.09/cwt on September 29 and the CME Lean Hog Index $81.21, with hog futures at contract lows. (IndexBox / USDA AMS; The Pig Site)
- Exports: July pork exports were 224,305 MT, down 6%; July beef exports held steady at 89,139 MT with value up 6%. (The National Provisioner)
Cold Storage
USDA’s September 25 Cold Storage report (August 31 stocks) showed total red meat up 8% from a year earlier. Pork stocks were up 12% and beef up 5%, while chicken was down 5%. (USDA NASS; American Ag Network)
Pork is piling up in freezers; chicken is not
U.S. cold storage stocks, August 31, 2026 — change from a year earlier
View data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Pork | +12% |
| Beef | +5% |
| Chicken | −5% |
Poultry: Bird Flu Returns to Turkeys
- September brought 15 HPAI detections in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin flocks, covering about 3.75 million birds. Minnesota has had 8 commercial flocks hit in September. (Agweek)
- For September 14–18, USDA reported fresh whole young hens at 184.11¢/lb and frozen at 179.53¢/lb. (IndexBox / USDA AMS)
- Chicken remains ample: the national composite whole bird was 116.81¢/lb in the week ending September 18. (IndexBox / USDA AMS)
Policy: Refunds, Funding and the DOJ
- IEEPA refunds: as of September 11, about $122 billion had been certified to Treasury, roughly 73% of the refund pool. CBP told the Court of International Trade that Phase 3 launches October 6, covering entries liquidated more than 80 days ago. (Thompson Hine; Cato Institute)
- No shutdown: a continuing resolution funds the government through December 11, so USDA reports continue. (Government Executive)
- DOJ: the beef-price investigation now covers eight retailers as well as the four largest packers. (Forbes)
Key Takeaways for Industry Professionals
- Don’t wait for holiday beef to get cheaper. Choice firmed to $382.66 into October, August placements were a record low, and USDA cut 2027 beef output.
- Mexican feeders are returning — with risk. Two ports are open, but the New Mexico horse case shows reopening could reverse.
- Lean trim is where relief is. 300,000 MT of duty-free trim from Brazil and Paraguay, sold 25% below market, runs through about late November. Grinders should price 90s against this window.
- Pork is a buyer’s market. Freezer stocks are up 12% and hog futures are at contract lows — book pork features now.
- Lock in holiday turkey. HPAI is back in Midwest turkey flocks; wholesale hens are holding around 180–184¢/lb.
- Get refund paperwork ready. CAPE Phase 3 opens October 6.
This report was compiled from USDA market data and reports, BLS price data, White House and CBP notices and industry publications for the period September 4 – October 1, 2026. Willowfield Enterprises provides this information for educational purposes. For personalized analysis, contact our team.
Sources
- IndexBox: Boxed Beef Cutout, September 29 (USDA AMS)
- IndexBox: Boxed Beef Cutout, September 17 (USDA AMS)
- IndexBox: Boxed Beef Cutout, September 8 (USDA AMS)
- IndexBox: Boxed Beef Cutout, September 24 (USDA AMS)
- IndexBox: Boxed Beef Cutout, September 1 (USDA AMS)
- Brownfield: Closing Futures, September 30
- DTN: September 1 Cattle on Feed
- High Plains Journal: USDA Lowers Red Meat and Poultry Forecast
- BLS: Average Price, Ground Beef (APU0000703112)
- NPR: Largest Livestock Crossing Reopens
- Bloomberg: Screwworm Reappears in New Mexico
- White House: Further Ensuring Affordable Beef
- Agri-Pulse: White House Moves Ahead with Ground Beef Imports
- CBP: Quota Bulletin QB 26-223
- USDA NASS: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, September 2026
- USDA NASS: Cold Storage, September 2026
- Agweek: Avian Flu Returns to Turkey Flocks
- Thompson Hine: CAPE Phase 3 Launch
- Government Executive: Shutdown Threat Lifted
