November 2026 Market Report: Pork Slides, Feedlot Placements Hit a Record Low, and Screwworm Moves West

All market news

The pork cutout fell 15% and hogs 20% in October, September placements were the lowest on record, the Choice/Select spread nearly closed, and screwworm reached Arizona as a West Coast port strike threatened meat exports.

Overview

October was a cheap-pork, tight-cattle month. The pork carcass cutout fell 15% and negotiated hogs fell 20% between October 1 and November 3. Feedlot placements hit a record low for September, while beef cutout values drifted lower and the Choice/Select spread nearly closed. New World screwworm reached Arizona and was found in wildlife for the first time. A threatened strike at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports puts much of U.S. meat export shipping at risk. Here is what moved between October 1 and November 3.

October by the numbers

Choice cutout: $365.23; per cwt · November 3
Choice/Select spread: $6.86; down from $23.90 on October 1
Pork carcass cutout: $72.43; per cwt · −15% since October 1
Negotiated hogs: $63.07; per cwt · −20% since October 1

Source: USDA AMS LM_XB403; USDA AMS LM_PK602; USDA AMS LM_HG201

Beef: Cutout Drifts Lower, Spread Nearly Closes

The Choice cutout slipped from $376.79/cwt on October 1 to $365.23 on November 3. Select gained over the same stretch, from $352.89 to $358.37. That narrowed the Choice/Select spread from $23.90 to $6.86. (USDA AMS LM_XB403)

Choice slipped, Select firmed, and the spread nearly closed

USDA boxed beef cutout, 600–900 lb, $ per cwt

Choice
Select

USDA report dates; weekly points plus the latest day.

View data

	Choice	Select
Oct 1	$376.79	$352.89
Oct 8	$374.85	$351.73
Oct 15	$373.98	$352.62
Oct 22	$369.47	$350.41
Oct 29	$367.28	$351.63
Nov 3	$365.23	$358.37

Source: USDA AMS LM_XB403

Middle meats vs. the grind: ribeyes set records while the ground beef market weakened. (Meatingplace)
- Fresh 50% lean trimmings peaked at $102.46/cwt on October 8, then fell to $81.20 by November 3.
- National fresh 90s slid from $397.63 to $371.86. (USDA AMS LM_XB403; USDA AMS LM_XB401)
Cattle: 5-area negotiated live steers rose from $218.65/cwt on October 1 to $223.30 on November 2. (USDA AMS LM_CT100)
- With cattle up and the cutout down, beef packer margins lost nearly $100 a head in late October. (Meatingplace)
- Cargill’s first-quarter earnings fell by more than half on high cattle costs. (Meatingplace)
Cattle on Feed (October 23): 11.372 million head on October 1, 99.6% of a year earlier. September placements and marketings were the lowest for any September in the series. (Meatingplace; Feedstuffs)
- Fewer head are being slaughtered, but record steer carcass weights are making up part of the tonnage. (Meatingplace)
USDA outlook: the October WASDE cut 2026 beef production for the eighth straight month. (Beef Magazine)

Retail: Beef Eases, Shoppers Keep Buying

Grocery beef prices fell in September for a second straight month, while chicken and pork prices rose. (Meatingplace / Daily Livestock Report) Volume held up: Circana data showed September beef pound sales up 3.8% from a year earlier, led by ribeye, brisket and ground beef. (Meatingplace)

Screwworm Moves West

61 cases: USDA counted 61 confirmed New World screwworm infestations in the U.S. since June as of October 23. That count includes the first case in wildlife, an elk in Texas. (Meatingplace; Meat+Poultry)
Arizona: on October 28, APHIS reported the state’s first case, in a dog in Cochise County. (Meatingplace / Daily Livestock Report)
Border: Mexican cattle imports stayed limited despite the reopened ports. (Meatingplace / Daily Livestock Report) USDA scheduled a third port to start handling livestock and a fourth to reopen November 30. (Meatingplace)

Imports: The Duty-Free Window and Who Wants In

300,000 MT: the Daily Livestock Report doesn’t expect the new 300,000 metric ton beef import quota to be filled. (Meatingplace / Daily Livestock Report) Meanwhile the duty-free import plan has drawn a “mystery meat” consumer backlash. (Meatingplace)
Paraguay: U.S. imports of Paraguayan beef rose 46% through July, and the country’s meat chamber is asking for a dedicated quota. (The National Provisioner)
Rules: APHIS proposed lowering the minimum maturation temperature for certain imported beef and lamb. (Meatingplace)
The bigger picture: with cattle inventories at historic lows, imports are filling the lean-beef gap. (Beef Magazine)

Pork: Heavy Supply, Thin Demand

The pork carcass cutout fell from $85.29/cwt on October 1 to $72.43 on November 3. Over the same period the negotiated hog base price fell from $78.99 to $63.07. (USDA AMS LM_PK602; USDA AMS LM_HG201)

Pork cutout and hogs slid all month

USDA pork carcass cutout and negotiated hog base price, $ per cwt

Pork carcass cutout
Negotiated hogs (base)

USDA report dates; weekly points plus the latest day.

View data

	Pork carcass cutout	Negotiated hogs (base)
Oct 1	$85.29	$78.99
Oct 8	$79.64	$77.73
Oct 15	$77.55	$73.74
Oct 22	$75.23	$68.92
Oct 29	$70.69	$66.23
Nov 3	$72.43	$63.07

Source: USDA AMS LM_PK602; USDA AMS LM_HG201

Why: weak packer margins and rising hog slaughter are weighing on prices, with limited near-term upside. (Meatingplace / Daily Livestock Report) Rabobank warns that weak global demand could force producers to rethink 2027 production. (Meatingplace)
Bellies: belly prices are down 39% from a year ago, the lowest for the season since 2017. (National Hog Farmer) Belly stocks fell 12% from August, and total red meat in storage was up 3% from 2025. (National Hog Farmer)
Exports: pork exports declined for a third straight month in August, as shipments to Mexico fell. Beef export value rose 13% year over year in the same month. (Meatingplace / Daily Livestock Report; The National Provisioner)
- Presidents Trump and Xi discussed lowering reciprocal tariffs on pork products. Nothing has been finalized. (National Hog Farmer)

Poultry and Dairy: Bird Flu Season Is Back

HPAI cases continue to turn up in flocks, and officials expect counts to rise and fall with wild bird movement. (Meat+Poultry)
Iowa reported its eighth H5N1 outbreak of 2026, and the governor issued a disaster declaration for the county. (Meat+Poultry)
In dairy, Meat+Poultry reported an H5N1 death tied to Washington’s outbreaks in Yakima County herds, and Indiana confirmed its first infected dairy herd. (Meat+Poultry; Feedstuffs)

Trade and Policy

West Coast ports: a possible work stoppage at Los Angeles and Long Beach threatens meat exports. About two-thirds of waterborne U.S. beef exports and half of waterborne pork exports move through those ports. (National Hog Farmer; Meat+Poultry)
New export doors:
- USMEF puts Saudi Arabia’s eased import rules at a $150 million opportunity for U.S. beef. (Meatingplace)
- USDA expects South Korean beef import demand to grow next year. Korea was the most lucrative market for U.S. beef last year, at $2.23 billion. (Meatingplace)
Processing aid: USDA began moving $57.4 million in grants to expand meat processing capacity across 40 states. (Meatingplace)
Labels: more than 30 companies have now adopted USDA’s voluntary Product of USA label. (Meat+Poultry)

Key Takeaways for Industry Professionals

Cattle supply keeps tightening. Placements hit a record low for September, and USDA cut 2026 beef output for the eighth straight month. Heavier carcasses are the only offset.
The Choice premium has nearly disappeared. At a $6.86 spread, Select is priced almost even with Choice. Check whether your specs still need Choice.
Lean and fat trim softened in October. 50s are back near $81 and 90s near $372, so grinders have room to price ground beef programs.
Pork is a buyer’s market. The cutout and hogs are at their lowest in a year, and analysts see limited near-term upside.
Watch two risks: screwworm moving west, and the LA/Long Beach port talks. Either could change cattle supply or export flows quickly.

This report was compiled from USDA Agricultural Marketing Service market data and industry publications for the period October 1 – November 3, 2026. Willowfield Enterprises provides this information for educational purposes. For personalized analysis, contact our team.