May 2026 Market Report: Record Cattle Prices, a Vanishing Grade Spread, and Screwworm Creeps Closer

Overview

April was the month cattle crossed lines that had never been crossed. The 5-area fed steer price set a record, cash cattle traded at $250/cwt for the first time, and live cattle futures printed an all-time high — before border-reopening fears knocked them back. Meanwhile the Choice/Select spread nearly vanished, beef cow slaughter fell to its slowest pace in years, and screwworm crept to within about 60 miles of the Texas border. Here is what moved between April 6 and May 4.

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Cattle: New Records, Then a Border Scare

• The 5-area weighted average steer price hit a record $248.38/cwt, topping the prior record of $246.91 set the week of February 23. Live cattle in the North traded at $250/cwt for the first time, on light volume. (AgWeb)
• The spot April live cattle contract reached $253.60 — an all-time high for any live cattle contract — and June set a contract high of $252. Drovers credits the 75-year-low herd and restricted Mexican imports. (Drovers; DTN)
• By April 17, futures had “plunged late week” on fears the Mexican border would reopen to feeder cattle. (Drovers)

Supply: Fewer Cows Going to Market

The Hales Cattle Letter (May 1) reports weekly beef cow slaughter averaging 39,044 head so far in 2026 — down from 47,678 in the same period of 2025 and 57,781 in 2024. That is the smallest share of the beginning inventory since 2015, and the letter suggests 2026 “could be the start of an increasing beef cow herd” — if rain holds. (Meatingplace)

Holding cows back is how a herd rebuilds — but it also means less beef now. USDA’s April 17 Cattle on Feed report showed 11.58 million head on feed April 1 (down 1%), with March placements of 1.71 million, the second-lowest March since the series began in 1996. (DTN; Pro Farmer)

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Boxed Beef: Choice and Select Converge

• The Choice cutout spent almost two weeks above $400/cwt in mid-March, then eased. On April 20 it stood at $383.06/cwt. (The National Provisioner; IndexBox / USDA AMS)
• On April 28 the Choice/Select spread was just $0.96/cwt. Through April, plants produced more Prime than Select for the first time, with 89.3% of carcasses grading Choice or higher (vs. 85.3% a year earlier). (Beef Magazine)

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USDA’s April Outlook

• Beef: 2026 production cut another 20 million lb to 25.79 billion lb on slower March steer and heifer slaughter. (Agriculture of America; USDA ERS)
• Pork: 2026 production lowered, reflecting fewer expected farrowings. (USDA ERS)
• Broilers: production raised on slaughter pace and heavier weights, to 48.9 billion lb for 2026. (USDA ERS)

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Retail: Ground Beef Up Nearly 16%

March price data, released April 10, put the U.S. average for 100% ground beef at $6.701/lb — up nearly 16% from a year earlier, against headline inflation of 3.3%. (BLS; CBS News)

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Screwworm: Closer to the Border

• In late March, Agriculture Secretary Rollins said a phased border reopening was under discussion, likely starting at Douglas, Arizona. No reopening occurred in April. (Fort Worth Report)
• USDA confirmed New World screwworm in a calf in Nuevo León roughly 60–62 miles from the border — the northernmost active case in Mexico at the time. About 100 million sterile flies are being released in the zone and USDA is monitoring more than 7,100 traps. (Cattle Range)
• Mexico reported almost 700 screwworm cases in April, which Bloomberg says is likely prolonging the U.S. import halt. (Bloomberg)

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Pork and Exports

• The pork cutout was $100.21/cwt on April 21 while June lean hogs firmed to $103.20. (The Pig Site)
• February pork exports were 242,511 mt (+1%), worth $678.8 million, led by Mexico. February beef exports fell 13% to 85,066 mt, which USMEF attributes mostly to China’s lockout of U.S. beef. (USMEF)

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Key Takeaways for Industry Professionals

1. Fed cattle are at records and supply isn’t loosening. Fewer cattle on feed and the lowest cow slaughter in years point to firm beef costs into summer.
2. Border headlines move futures. Reopening fears alone knocked cattle off their highs on April 17. Expect sharp swings on screwworm news.
3. Trading up to Choice costs almost nothing. With a $0.96 spread and 89% Choice-or-better grading, spec Choice where it fits.
4. Consumers feel it. Ground beef is $6.70/lb, up nearly 16%. Expect shifts toward grinds, pork and chicken as grilling season builds.
5. Pork is the value protein. The cutout sits near $100/cwt, a quarter of the beef cutout.
6. More U.S. beef is staying home. With China closed, beef exports are down 13% — a modest offset to tight domestic supply.

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This report was compiled from USDA market data and reports, BLS price data and industry publications for the period April 6 – May 4, 2026. Willowfield Enterprises provides this information for educational purposes. For personalized analysis, contact our team.

Sources

• AgWeb: Can Record Fed Cattle Futures and Cash Trade Continue?
• Drovers: Breaking the $250 Barrier
• DTN: Livestock Records Are Meant to Be Broken
• Drovers: Has the Cattle Market Finally Topped?
• Meatingplace: Hales Cattle Letter, May 1, 2026
• DTN: April 1 Cattle on Feed
• The National Provisioner: A Q1 Rally for the Record Books
• IndexBox: Boxed Beef, April 20 (USDA AMS)
• Beef Magazine: April 2026 Is a Wrap
• USDA ERS: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, April 2026
• BLS: Average Price, Ground Beef (APU0000703112)
• CBS News: Beef Costs in the March CPI Report
• Cattle Range: Northernmost Screwworm Case
• Bloomberg: More Screwworm Cases in Mexico
• The Pig Site: CME Market Report, April 21
• USMEF: February Export Results