USDA confirmed the first U.S. livestock case of New World screwworm in a Texas calf, cattle futures whipsawed, retail ground beef hit a record $6.90/lb, and USDA's first 2027 outlook shows even less beef and higher cattle prices.
Overview
On June 3, 2026, the New World screwworm stopped being a Mexico problem: USDA confirmed the first U.S. livestock case of the current outbreak in a calf in Zavala County, Texas. Cattle futures slumped on the news and then rallied the next day as traders priced in even tighter supply. Retail beef set new records in April, boxed beef held steady through Memorial Day, and USDA’s first look at 2027 shows no relief. Here is what moved between May 5 and June 4.
May by the numbers
- U.S. screwworm case
- 1st
- this outbreak · Zavala County, TX · June 3
- Choice cutout
- $392.66
- per cwt · June 4
- Ground beef, retail
- $6.90
- per lb · April · record
- USDA 2027 steer forecast
- $254
- per cwt · May WASDE
Source: CNBC; USDA AMS via IndexBox, Jun 4; BLS; Cattle Range
Screwworm Reaches Texas
- On June 3, USDA APHIS confirmed New World screwworm in a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County, Texas — the first U.S. livestock case of this outbreak. Agriculture Secretary Rollins said no other infestations had been found around the confirmed case. (CNBC; CBS News)
- Days earlier, on May 29, APHIS confirmed an active case in a sheep in Coahuila, Mexico, about 31 miles from the Texas border. USDA estimates an outbreak could cause about $1.8 billion in damage to Texas alone. (Farm Policy News)
- The southern border marked one year closed to Mexican live cattle on May 11, and remained closed throughout the period. (Farm Progress)
Market Reaction
- Futures slumped June 3 on the suspected case, then rallied June 4: August live cattle rose 3.675¢ to 241.525¢/lb and August feeders jumped 10.75¢ to 353.375¢/lb after touching multi-month lows. (The Beef Site)
- CME widened daily price limits: live cattle from $7.25 to $8.50/cwt, feeders from $9.25 to $10.75/cwt. (Western Livestock Journal)
- Cash fed steers averaged $256.88/cwt live and $405.25 dressed in the week ending May 31. (Western Livestock Journal)
Boxed Beef: Steady Through Memorial Day
The Choice cutout held in a tight band around Memorial Day — firm, but below its March peak above $400. On May 29 Choice was $391.47 and Select $383.18; through the first week of June Choice traded between $392 and $396. (IndexBox / USDA AMS; IndexBox / USDA AMS)
Choice held steady through Memorial Day, below its March peak
USDA Choice boxed beef cutout, $ per cwt
View data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Mar 17 | $403.74 |
| Apr 20 | $383.06 |
| May 29 | $391.47 |
| Jun 4 | $392.66 |
Source: USDA AMS via IndexBox, Mar 17; USDA AMS via IndexBox, Apr 20; USDA AMS via IndexBox, May 29; USDA AMS via IndexBox, Jun 4
Retail: New Records for Beef
April price data, released May 12, set fresh records. 100% ground beef averaged $6.90/lb, up 18.9% from a year earlier, and the American Farm Bureau reports all-fresh beef at a record $9.64/lb. Pork and chicken barely moved, which leaves a wide price gap for promotions and menu substitution. (BLS; American Farm Bureau)
The protein price gap at retail
U.S. average retail price, April 2026, $ per lb
View data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Beef steaks (all) | $13.02 |
| All-fresh beef | $9.64 |
| Ground beef (100%) | $6.90 |
| Pork chops | $4.33 |
| Boneless chicken breast | $4.17 |
Source: American Farm Bureau; BLS via FRED (steaks); BLS
Ground beef hit a record in April
U.S. average retail price, $ per lb, monthly
- Ground beef (100% beef)
- Bacon, sliced
No October 2025 data: BLS did not publish average prices for that month (federal shutdown).
View data
| Ground beef (100% beef) | Bacon, sliced | |
|---|---|---|
| Jan ’25 | $5.55 | $7.04 |
| Feb | $5.63 | $6.80 |
| Mar | $5.79 | $6.98 |
| Apr | $5.80 | $7.01 |
| May | $5.98 | $6.99 |
| Jun | $6.12 | $7.10 |
| Jul | $6.25 | $7.12 |
| Aug | $6.32 | $7.21 |
| Sep | $6.32 | $7.29 |
| Oct | — | — |
| Nov | $6.54 | $6.93 |
| Dec | $6.69 | $6.76 |
| Jan ’26 | $6.75 | $6.98 |
| Feb | $6.74 | $6.90 |
| Mar | $6.70 | $6.80 |
| Apr | $6.90 | $6.83 |
Source: BLS APU0000703112; BLS APU0000704111
USDA’s First Look at 2027
The May WASDE carried the first 2027 projections (Brownfield; Cattle Range; USDA WASDE):
- Beef: 2027 production forecast at 25.31 billion lb, down 0.9%, as heifer retention limits fed-cattle supply.
- Cattle: 2027 steer price forecast at $254/cwt, up from $249.66 for 2026 — a new record if realized.
- Pork and broilers: 2027 production forecast higher, with lower hog and turkey prices. Total red meat and poultry output is expected to rise.
Supply Reports
- Cattle on Feed (May 22): 11.6 million head on May 1, up 2% — the first year-over-year increase in 18 months. April placements rose 6% (some drought-driven early sales); marketings fell 10%. (Oklahoma Farm Report; DTN)
- Cold Storage (April 30 stocks): total red meat down 4% from a year earlier, frozen pork down 4%, pork bellies down 8%. (USDA NASS)
Key Takeaways for Industry Professionals
- Screwworm is now a U.S. risk. The Texas case makes a near-term border reopening less likely and adds volatility — August feeders moved nearly 11¢/lb in a single day.
- Plan for bigger daily swings. Wider CME limits mean live cattle can move $8.50/cwt and feeders $10.75/cwt in one session.
- Little room to negotiate boxed beef. Choice held $391–396 through Memorial Day, with Select about $8–9 under.
- Use the protein price gap. All-fresh beef is $9.64/lb at retail, against $4.33 for pork chops and $4.17 for boneless chicken breast.
- No relief in 2027. USDA sees less beef and $254 steers next year — consider longer contracts and imported lean trim.
- The extra cattle on feed are a short-term bump. Drought-driven placements may add fed supply this summer, but heifer retention and lean freezer stocks keep the market firm.
This report was compiled from USDA market data and reports, BLS price data and industry publications for the period May 5 – June 4, 2026. Willowfield Enterprises provides this information for educational purposes. For personalized analysis, contact our team.
Sources
- CNBC: Screwworm Confirmed in the U.S.
- CBS News: Screwworm Found in Texas Calf
- Farm Policy News: Screwworm Found 31 Miles from U.S. Border
- Farm Progress: USDA Halts Livestock Imports from Mexico
- The Beef Site: Cattle Futures Rally on First U.S. Screwworm Detection
- Western Livestock Journal: Market Wrap-Up, June 1
- IndexBox: Boxed Beef Cutout, May 29 (USDA AMS)
- IndexBox: Boxed Beef Cutout, June 4 (USDA AMS)
- BLS: Average Price, Ground Beef (APU0000703112)
- American Farm Bureau: Meat Demand Sizzles as Memorial Day Nears
- USDA: WASDE, May 2026
- Brownfield: USDA Sees Beef Decline Into 2027
- Cattle Range: May WASDE Report
- Oklahoma Farm Report: Cattle on Feed, May 2026
- USDA NASS: Cold Storage, May 2026
