July 2026 Market Report: Screwworm Cases Spread, Mexico Bans U.S. Livestock, and the Tariff Clock Runs Down

Overview

June turned the screwworm outbreak into a two-way trade problem. After the first Texas case on June 3, U.S. officials confirmed five cases in Texas and New Mexico, and Mexico suspended most U.S. live-animal imports on June 10. Boxed beef softened into the July 4 holiday while the Choice/Select spread nearly doubled. In Washington, USTR proposed the Section 301 tariffs that will replace the Section 122 tariff when it expires July 24, and the U.S. declined to extend USMCA at the July 1 joint review. Here is what moved between June 5 and July 5.

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Screwworm: Now a Two-Way Border Issue

• Since the June 3 Zavala County case — the first U.S. livestock case in about five decades — U.S. officials have confirmed five cases in Texas and New Mexico. (Texas Tribune; The Pig Site)
• On June 10, Mexico suspended most live-animal imports from the U.S. — cattle, horses, pigs, sheep, goats and others — in coordination with USDA. (Drovers; Meatingplace)
• Mexico has registered more than 28,200 screwworm cases since November 2024. The U.S. border remained closed to Mexican feeder cattle through July 5. (AgDaily)

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Boxed Beef: Softer Into July 4, Wider Spread

• Choice was $392.70/cwt on June 5 with Select at $382.69 — a $10.01 spread. (Brownfield)
• By July 2, Choice had eased to $387.07 and Select to $367.43 — a $19.64 spread, nearly double. Estimated slaughter that day was 109,000 head, down nearly 5,000 from a year earlier. (Brownfield)
• U.S. beef imports in April totaled 522 million lb, up 10% from a year earlier, led by Mexico, Canada and Australia. (USDA ERS)

Cattle

• Cash fed cattle in the holiday week traded at $255–256 live, about $3 lower on the week, and $403 dressed. On July 2, August live cattle closed at $239.22 and August feeders at $360.62. (Brownfield; Brownfield)
• USDA’s June 18 Cattle on Feed report showed 11.7 million head on feed June 1 (+2%), but May placements fell 10% and marketings 12% — a thinner pipeline ahead. (DTN)

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USDA June Outlook

The June WASDE trimmed 2026 beef production to 25.438 billion lb and raised the slaughter-steer price forecast to $250.16/cwt. Pork was raised slightly to 27.995 billion lb on heavier weights, and broilers were raised 231 million lb to 49.377 billion lb. (High Plains Journal; USDA ERS)

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Pork: Smallest June Breeding Herd Since 2014

USDA’s June 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report counted 73.7 million hogs and pigs on June 1, down slightly. The breeding herd of 5.88 million was the smallest June 1 figure since 2014, but litters averaged 11.87 pigs, keeping the March–May pig crop at 33.5 million. August lean hog futures closed at $98.75 on July 2. (USDA NASS; Pork Checkoff; Brownfield)

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Trade: What Replaces Section 122

• On June 2, USTR found all 60 economies in its Section 301 forced-labor investigations actionable and proposed additional duties of 10% on six partners — including Canada, Mexico and the EU — and 12.5% on most others. Comments were due July 6. (CNBC; Federal Register)
• The 10% Section 122 tariff still expires July 24. As of July 5, the 301 action was a proposal, and whether meat lines would be excluded had not been settled.

USMCA: No Extension, Annual Reviews

At the July 1 joint review, the U.S. declined to confirm a 16-year extension of USMCA. The agreement stays fully in force, but now moves to annual reviews until the parties agree to extend or it expires in 2036. A U.S.–Mexico negotiating round is set for the week of July 20. (White & Case)

IEEPA Refunds

CBP launched Phase 2 of its CAPE refund tool on June 29. As of that date CBP had authorized $104.29 billion in refunds and paid $71.06 billion, including interest. The government has appealed the Court of International Trade’s universal refund order. (Thompson Hine; Cato Institute; Holland & Knight)

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Retail

May price data showed 100% ground beef at $6.745/lb, down from April’s record $6.899 — still about 13% above May 2025. (BLS)

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Key Takeaways for Industry Professionals

1. Screwworm is now domestic. U.S. cases and Mexico’s ban on U.S. live animals add animal-health risk to a herd already at multi-decade lows.
2. Grade drives value. The Choice/Select spread nearly doubled to $19.64. Select and lower-grade middle meats are where the value is.
3. Tighter fed supply is coming. May placements fell 10%; USDA cut 2026 beef again.
4. Imports keep growing. April beef imports were up 10%. Lean trim and grinding programs stay import-dependent.
5. Prepare for July 24. Confirm with your customs broker how the proposed Section 301 rates would apply to your meat and seafood lines, and check IEEPA refund eligibility now that CAPE Phase 2 is open.
6. Pork and chicken remain the features. A more productive breeding herd keeps pork supply steady, and USDA raised broiler output.

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This report was compiled from USDA market data and reports, BLS price data, trade-law publications and industry sources for the period June 5 – July 5, 2026. Willowfield Enterprises provides this information for educational purposes. For personalized analysis, contact our team.

Sources

• Texas Tribune: Screwworm in Texas
• Drovers: Mexico Blocks Most Imports of Live Animals from the U.S.
• Meatingplace: Mexico Suspends U.S. Livestock Imports
• AgDaily: Mexico Halts U.S. Livestock Imports
• Brownfield: Cattle Futures, June 5
• Brownfield: Cattle Futures Finish Holiday-Shortened Week Lower
• Brownfield: Closing Futures, July 2
• DTN: June 1 Cattle on Feed
• High Plains Journal: June WASDE
• USDA ERS: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, June 2026
• USDA NASS: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, June 2026
• Pork Checkoff: June Hogs and Pigs Insights
• CNBC: Section 301 Tariffs on 60 Economies
• Federal Register: Section 301 Determinations, June 5, 2026
• White & Case: USMCA 2026 Joint Review
• Thompson Hine: CAPE Phase 2 Launch
• Cato Institute: IEEPA Refunds Update
• BLS: Average Price, Ground Beef (APU0000703112)