August 2026 Market Report: Section 122 Expires, New Section 301 Tariffs Arrive, and Beef Is Exempt

Overview

July 24 rewrote the U.S. tariff map. The 10% Section 122 global tariff expired at its 150-day limit, and in the same minute new Section 301 “forced-labor” tariffs of 10% or 12.5% took effect on imports from 60 economies. Brazil got a separate 25% tariff. For meat buyers, the headline is that beef is exempt from both — but pork, poultry and seafood are not. Also in July: the mid-year cattle inventory hinted that herd rebuilding has begun, and the Choice cutout eased into the mid-$360s. Here is what moved between July 6 and August 4.

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Section 122 Expires; Section 301 Takes Over

• The 10% Section 122 surcharge expired at 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 24. Extending it would have required an Act of Congress, and none was pending. (Industrial Sage)
• USTR finalized its Section 301 action on July 23: 12.5% on economies with no forced-labor import ban and 10% where a ban exists but isn’t effectively enforced, effective 12:01 a.m. July 24. USTR received more than 1,600 comments and heard 100+ witnesses. (USTR; Federal Register)
• Per the Global Cold Chain Alliance, the 10% tier includes Canada, Mexico, the EU, the UK, India and Indonesia; the 12.5% tier includes Australia, New Zealand, China, Brazil, Vietnam and Thailand. (GCCA)
• USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico are exempt, as are goods already subject to Section 232. Goods loaded before July 24 and entered before July 28 kept the old treatment. (GHY International)

What It Means by Protein

• Beef: exempt. Bovine tariff lines are named in the exemption annex. Cattle groups asked USTR to remove the exemption; the request failed. (GCCA; Agri-Pulse)
• Pork: not exempt. EU pork pays 10%; USMCA-qualifying Canadian and Mexican pork stays duty-free.
• Poultry: not exempt. Thai cooked chicken — the main import — falls in the 12.5% tier.
• Seafood: no exemption confirmed for shrimp, salmon or pangasius; a separate Section 301 seafood probe remains open. (GCCA)

Brazil: 25%, Beef Exempt

Separately, USTR announced a 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian goods on July 15, effective July 22. Beef and beef products are exempt, along with coffee, orange juice and several other goods — an exemption R-CALF USA and USCA publicly opposed. (USTR; Tri-State Livestock News)

USMCA and IEEPA Refunds

• After the U.S. declined to extend USMCA on July 1, U.S.–Mexico bilateral talks began the week of July 20. The agreement remains in force with annual reviews. (White & Case; Thompson Hine)
• As of July 31, about $128.68 billion in IEEPA refunds had been accepted for processing in CBP’s CAPE system. On July 15 the Court of International Trade ordered CBP to reliquidate certain finally liquidated entries — but only for importers that have sued. (GHY International; Holland & Knight)

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Boxed Beef: Easing Into the Mid-$360s

The Choice cutout slid from $371.28 on July 15 to the low-to-mid $360s in late July, while Select weakened faster and the Choice/Select spread widened past $20. (IndexBox / USDA AMS; IndexBox / USDA AMS)

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The Herd May Be Turning

USDA’s July Cattle report (July 24) counted 94.2 million cattle and calves on July 1, up from 94.0 million a year earlier. Beef replacement heifers rose 3% to 3.80 million — the clearest sign yet that ranchers are holding back heifers to rebuild. Cattle on feed in all feedlots totaled 13.2 million, up 2%. (USDA NASS; American Farm Bureau)

Heifer retention is bullish for beef supply in 2028 and beyond, but it takes heifers out of the feedlot now — tightening fed-cattle supply in the near term.

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Retail

June price data showed 100% ground beef at $6.825/lb, up from $6.745 in May and about 11.5% above June 2025. (BLS)

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Key Takeaways for Industry Professionals

1. Imported beef costs did not rise on July 24. Beef is exempt from both the 60-economy Section 301 tariffs and the 25% Brazil tariff, keeping imported lean trim competitive.
2. Re-check landed costs on everything else. EU pork (10%), Thai cooked chicken (12.5%) and most imported seafood (10–12.5%) now carry the new duty.
3. USMCA paperwork is worth money. Qualifying Canadian and Mexican product stays exempt — confirm certificates of origin with suppliers.
4. The cutout softened, Select more than Choice. With the spread past $20, Select and end cuts offer the better value.
5. Rebuilding tightens supply first. Replacement heifers are up 3%; expect fed-cattle supply and cutout values to stay firm through 2026.
6. File IEEPA refund claims. More than $128 billion has been accepted for processing; importers with finally liquidated entries need to have filed suit.

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This report was compiled from USTR and Federal Register notices, USDA market data and reports, BLS price data and industry publications for the period July 6 – August 4, 2026. Tariff treatment depends on product classification and origin; confirm with your customs broker. Willowfield Enterprises provides this information for educational purposes. For personalized analysis, contact our team.

Sources

• USTR: Action in Forced-Labor Section 301 Investigations
• Federal Register: Notice of Actions, July 28, 2026
• Global Cold Chain Alliance: July 2026 Tariff Actions and the Cold Chain
• Industrial Sage: Section 122 Tariff Expires
• GHY International: Section 301 Forced-Labor Tariffs
• Agri-Pulse: Ag Groups React to Section 301 Exemptions
• USTR: Section 301 Action on Brazil
• Tri-State Livestock News: Brazil Beef Exemption
• White & Case: USMCA 2026 Joint Review
• GHY International: CAPE IEEPA Refund Progress
• Holland & Knight: CIT Order on Refunds
• IndexBox: Boxed Beef Cutout, July 15 (USDA AMS)
• IndexBox: Boxed Beef Cutout, July 27 (USDA AMS)
• USDA NASS: Cattle, July 2026
• American Farm Bureau: July Cattle Report Signals Stabilizing Herd
• BLS: Average Price, Ground Beef (APU0000703112)