April 2026 Market Report: Choice Cutout Breaks $400 as Select Grows Scarce

Overview

March delivered the strongest boxed-beef market of the year so far. The Choice cutout pushed through $400/cwt in mid-March, Select-grade beef became so scarce that it briefly traded above Choice, and retail beef prices ran roughly 14–16% above a year ago. On the pork side, the March Hogs and Pigs report showed a record litter rate offsetting the smallest breeding herd since 2014. Here is what moved between March 5 and April 5, and what it means for your next buy.

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Boxed Beef: Choice Clears $400, Then the Spread Flips

• Choice boxed beef jumped $4.07 to $391.29/cwt on March 9. (Oklahoma Farm Report)
• Choice averaged $386.41/cwt in the first week of March — up 9.1% since the start of the year and 23.0% year over year, according to Oklahoma State economist Derrell Peel. (Oklahoma Farm Report)
• The Choice cutout reached $403.74/cwt on March 17 — roughly $50 above where it started the year and its first time above $400 since the September 2025 highs. Rib and loin primals led the rally. (IndexBox / USDA AMS; Southern Ag Today)
• By late March the market did something unusual: Choice slipped to a $5/cwt discount to Select. Select fell to a record-low 7.9% of graded carcasses in March while Prime moved toward 15%. (Certified Angus Beef)

Why It Matters

With cattle on feed longer and grading higher, “Select” is no longer the automatic discount. Buyers running Select-based programs — grinding, foodservice middle meats, value lines — should price against specs rather than assume a grade spread.

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Cattle: Tight Marketings, Strong Cash

• USDA’s March 20 Cattle on Feed report showed 11.55 million head on feed March 1. February placements were 1.61 million (104% of a year earlier) and marketings 1.52 million (93%) — the slowest February marketing pace since 2015. (Pro Farmer; American Ag Network)
• 5-area slaughter steers averaged $237.14/cwt in March, almost $29 above March 2025. (The Cattle Site)
• Oklahoma City 750–800 lb feeder steers averaged $371.42/cwt in February — $101 above a year earlier and the second-highest monthly average on record. (USDA ERS)
• The southern border remains closed to Mexican feeder cattle because of New World screwworm, and APHIS has said reopening depends on there being no risk to the U.S. herd. (Drovers)

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Retail: Beef Inflation Runs Six Times Food at Home

February consumer price data, released March 11, showed beef far outpacing the rest of the grocery basket. The BLS U.S. average price for 100% ground beef was $6.739/lb in February. (BLS; Wolf Street)

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USDA Outlook: Less Beef, Higher Cattle Prices

USDA’s March WASDE and Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook:

• Beef: 2026 production cut 110 million lb to 25.81 billion lb on slower slaughter, partly offset by heavier carcasses. The 2026 slaughter-steer price was raised to $242/cwt (about 8% above 2025). (Meat+Poultry; USDA ERS)
• Pork: 2026 production forecast at 28.3 billion lb (+2.5%), with hog prices near $70/cwt. (USDA ERS)
• Broilers: first-half production raised; the 2026 broiler price forecast trimmed 1¢ to 124¢/lb. (USDA ERS)

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Pork: Record Litters, Smallest Breeding Herd Since 2014

USDA’s March 26 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report (USDA NASS; Pork Business):

• All hogs and pigs on March 1: 74.3 million head, up slightly from a year earlier.
• Breeding herd: 5.89 million, down 1% — the smallest since 2014.
• Market hogs: 68.4 million, up 1%. December–February pig crop: 33.2 million, up 1%.
• Pigs per litter hit a record 11.90, versus 11.65 a year earlier.

Productivity, not herd growth, is carrying pork supply. That keeps pork the value protein for now, with limited room for supply to expand later in 2026.

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Trade Watch

The trade picture from our March report still applies: the 10% Section 122 global tariff (beef exempt) runs until its 150-day limit on July 24, 2026, and IEEPA tariff refunds are moving through the courts and CBP. We will cover what replaces Section 122 as details emerge.

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Key Takeaways for Industry Professionals

1. Book grilling-season middle meats early. Choice cleared $400/cwt in March and USDA cut 2026 beef output again. Rib and loin led the rally.
2. Don’t assume a Select discount. Select grading hit a record-low 7.9% and briefly priced above Choice. Price programs on spec.
3. Cattle supply stays tight. Marketings are the slowest since 2015 and the Mexican border is still closed. Expect fed cattle near record levels.
4. Consumers are trading down. Beef and veal prices were up 14.4% year over year in February against 2.4% for all food at home. Demand for grinds, blends and imported lean trim stays strong.
5. Pork is the value play. Record litters keep supply steady even with a smaller breeding herd.
6. Chicken is well supplied. USDA raised first-half broiler output — a good fit for features.

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This report was compiled from USDA market data and reports, BLS price data and industry publications for the period March 5 – April 5, 2026. Willowfield Enterprises provides this information for educational purposes. For personalized analysis, contact our team.

Sources

• Oklahoma Farm Report: Choice Boxed Beef Jumps $4.07 to $391.29
• Oklahoma Farm Report: Derrell Peel on Seasonal Beef Demand
• IndexBox: Boxed Beef Prices, March 17, 2026 (USDA AMS)
• Southern Ag Today: Boxed Beef Cutout Pushes Higher
• Certified Angus Beef: Choice/Select Spread Inverted
• Pro Farmer: Cattle on Feed Report
• The Cattle Site: U.S. Cattle Prices Raised on Firm Demand
• USDA ERS: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, March 2026
• Meat+Poultry: WASDE Forecasts Lower Beef Production
• BLS: Average Price, Ground Beef (APU0000703112)
• BLS: Consumer Price Index, February 2026
• Wolf Street: Food Inflation in America
• USDA NASS: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, March 2026
• Drovers: When Could the U.S. Reopen the Southern Border?